Saturday, September 20, 2008
Sunday, September 14, 2008
A look at Jon Niese
Jon Niese-What have we learned in 2 starts.
Okay, I've been bad....school, work, applications for law school make it hard to do recaps. Those who may have followed this site (1 or 2 of you? Probably just Jules) have noticed the focus on Fmart, well he may have been passed by Wilmer Flores according to Jim Callis (Those curious may note that the Josh (NC) who asked the question of Callis originally is indeed me :-P) Needless to say we'll focus on wilmer flores in the future.
To learn a bit about Jon Niese in his two starts, i've been following the pitchfx analyses of his two starts, and have actually taken the raw data myself and did the graphs myself (I may add a few of these later, but I want to see a third start first).
You can find pitchfx data on Niese's two starts at the following links:
Niese v Milwaukee 9/2, in Milwaukee
Niese v Atlanta: 9/13 at Shea
So what do we learn from these starts and the data.
First: Niese appears to have 3 pitches:
He has a Fastball, that averages around 88-89 MPH* (More on this later) and topped out at 92.9, a changeup that clocks in at around 81 MPH, and a curveball that clocks in at 73.5 MPH.
It doesn't take much analysis to know that Niese's curveball is his best pitch. This is a 12-6 (referring to the hands on a clock) curveball, most famously thrown by the rich dude in SF who likes guitars (err Barry Zito). As the name implies, this type of pitch has little if any horizontal movement, and instead has greater vertical drop.
How effective has Niese's curveball been? Lets look at the #s:
Total Number of Curveballs Thrown: 49
Balls: 13 (2 in the Dirt)
Called Strikes: 9
Swinging Strikes: 6
Foul Balls: 10
Balls Put in Play: 11
Of these 11, 2 fell in for Hits, while 9 were recorded as outs.
As you could guess, the fact that only 13 of 49 were taken for balls is a great sign for Niese, it implies that Niese has good control of this essential pitch and that he is also fooling batters with it (of those swinging strikes, 4 of them missed the strike zone). This percentage might go up a little bit as teams get a scouting report on niese, but that shouldn't affect things too much.
The Balls put in play is especially interesting, On curveballs put in play, hitters have a .182 Batting average. Is this sustainable? Hard to say, but it's a great sign for a pitcher who may not be the biggest strike out pitcher.
(One final note: Niese actually has a slightly different release for his curve ball than his fastball, in that he releases earlier in the wind up, from a higher arm angle. I doubt this is obviously noticable to hitters considering the speed of the wind up as it's obvious enough on tape you'd figure that the pitching coaches in the minors would've helped correct this release point difference. So, despite my previous comments in the met chatroom, i don't think he's significantly tipping his pitches)
How about his fastball?
Well in his two starts, Niese has thrown 124 Fastballs. The breakdown is as follows:
54 Balls, 28 Called Strikes, 3 Swinging Strikes, 18 Foul Balls.
21 Balls Put in Play, 8 of which for hits.
Clearly these stats are not as pretty as the curveball. Over 2 out of every 5 fastballs misses the strike zone and is called a ball. Meanwhile, while Niese has thrown 124 Fastballs, yet only 3 resulted in the good old fashioned Swing and Miss.
The reason for this is that Niese's fastball is simply just not that deceptive. The pitch is very inconsitant in its movement, but it has very little movement on average, moving 3.4 inches in on lefties, which makes it very close to what people improperly label as "the straight fastball". Put simply, when the hitters see the fastball, they are getting good reads on where that pitch is going, and are not missing when they swing.
Niese's success vs atlanta was due to him being able to spot that fastball consistantly on the Outside corner, which resulted in a large amount of called strikes. While this isn't necessarily bad, it relies a lot on an ump giving Niese the outside corner, as well as players not getting lucky and reaching out for that pitch and putting it in play. Remember tommy glavine? The wrong ump could screw Glavine, ,even if he was spot on. And even when he was on, a good team could knock Glavine around if they got lucky at reaching for those outside corner pitches.
Two more comments on the Fastball:
First, 8 of the 21 fastballs put in play resulted in hits, which means when opponents put the fastball in play, they're batting 381! So clearly, Niese should not go fastball happy in a game, even if he is having problems with his curveball. Also because of this, Niese throws the curveball on 3-1 and 3-2 counts, which are typically fastball counts. This is huge, because throwing this fastball in those counts, when hitters are sitting on dead red.
Second, as the game goes on, Niese's fastball's speed drops significantly. The fastball already isn't overpowering anyone, and this just makes it worse.
Then there's the changeup. I won't spend much time on the changeup here, but I will show you the compiliation:
16 Curveballs thrown: 8 for Balls, 1 called strike, 1 swinging strike, 2 foul balls, and 4 balls put in play, 3 of which were hits.
His changeup is obviously his worse pitch as you can see here, and I think Niese knows it...in his second start he threw a ground total of 5 change-ups in 116 pitches.
----------------------------------
So what does all this mean, what should we look for in Mr. Niese? Well, Niese has the opposite problem as Mike Pelfrey right now: Pelf needs to work on an offspeed pitch to accompany his great sinker and 4 seamer, while Niese has a perfect off speed pitch. Niese on the other hand needs to work on his fastball. His curveball is a strong pitch, and he knows it and is not afraid to throw it on 3-1 and 3-2 counts. His fastball on the other hand, is simply mediocre and relies a lot on pinpoint control. For the future, I'd suspect he'll either do some heavy work on reworking that changeup, or ditch the pitch altogether. I think considering how slow his fastball is, Niese would be better off with a slider than a changeup.
For this season, Niese would seem to work really good out of the bullpen, where he could easily survive on 2 pitches. If he starts again, which looks likely, don't expect the same type of response from the last game. He's probably equivalent to at most a 5 starter right now...it's just simply impossible to get by on just a curve ball when teams facing him will know how his fastball looks. (Of course, if he faces the Nationals or another bad team, this point is moot, but you get the idea). Just don't overhype the kid, he's still very raw, and in an ideal situation, would have a full year in AAA next year before being called up for good.
Okay, I've been bad....school, work, applications for law school make it hard to do recaps. Those who may have followed this site (1 or 2 of you? Probably just Jules) have noticed the focus on Fmart, well he may have been passed by Wilmer Flores according to Jim Callis (Those curious may note that the Josh (NC) who asked the question of Callis originally is indeed me :-P) Needless to say we'll focus on wilmer flores in the future.
To learn a bit about Jon Niese in his two starts, i've been following the pitchfx analyses of his two starts, and have actually taken the raw data myself and did the graphs myself (I may add a few of these later, but I want to see a third start first).
You can find pitchfx data on Niese's two starts at the following links:
Niese v Milwaukee 9/2, in Milwaukee
Niese v Atlanta: 9/13 at Shea
So what do we learn from these starts and the data.
First: Niese appears to have 3 pitches:
He has a Fastball, that averages around 88-89 MPH* (More on this later) and topped out at 92.9, a changeup that clocks in at around 81 MPH, and a curveball that clocks in at 73.5 MPH.
It doesn't take much analysis to know that Niese's curveball is his best pitch. This is a 12-6 (referring to the hands on a clock) curveball, most famously thrown by the rich dude in SF who likes guitars (err Barry Zito). As the name implies, this type of pitch has little if any horizontal movement, and instead has greater vertical drop.
How effective has Niese's curveball been? Lets look at the #s:
Total Number of Curveballs Thrown: 49
Balls: 13 (2 in the Dirt)
Called Strikes: 9
Swinging Strikes: 6
Foul Balls: 10
Balls Put in Play: 11
Of these 11, 2 fell in for Hits, while 9 were recorded as outs.
As you could guess, the fact that only 13 of 49 were taken for balls is a great sign for Niese, it implies that Niese has good control of this essential pitch and that he is also fooling batters with it (of those swinging strikes, 4 of them missed the strike zone). This percentage might go up a little bit as teams get a scouting report on niese, but that shouldn't affect things too much.
The Balls put in play is especially interesting, On curveballs put in play, hitters have a .182 Batting average. Is this sustainable? Hard to say, but it's a great sign for a pitcher who may not be the biggest strike out pitcher.
(One final note: Niese actually has a slightly different release for his curve ball than his fastball, in that he releases earlier in the wind up, from a higher arm angle. I doubt this is obviously noticable to hitters considering the speed of the wind up as it's obvious enough on tape you'd figure that the pitching coaches in the minors would've helped correct this release point difference. So, despite my previous comments in the met chatroom, i don't think he's significantly tipping his pitches)
How about his fastball?
Well in his two starts, Niese has thrown 124 Fastballs. The breakdown is as follows:
54 Balls, 28 Called Strikes, 3 Swinging Strikes, 18 Foul Balls.
21 Balls Put in Play, 8 of which for hits.
Clearly these stats are not as pretty as the curveball. Over 2 out of every 5 fastballs misses the strike zone and is called a ball. Meanwhile, while Niese has thrown 124 Fastballs, yet only 3 resulted in the good old fashioned Swing and Miss.
The reason for this is that Niese's fastball is simply just not that deceptive. The pitch is very inconsitant in its movement, but it has very little movement on average, moving 3.4 inches in on lefties, which makes it very close to what people improperly label as "the straight fastball". Put simply, when the hitters see the fastball, they are getting good reads on where that pitch is going, and are not missing when they swing.
Niese's success vs atlanta was due to him being able to spot that fastball consistantly on the Outside corner, which resulted in a large amount of called strikes. While this isn't necessarily bad, it relies a lot on an ump giving Niese the outside corner, as well as players not getting lucky and reaching out for that pitch and putting it in play. Remember tommy glavine? The wrong ump could screw Glavine, ,even if he was spot on. And even when he was on, a good team could knock Glavine around if they got lucky at reaching for those outside corner pitches.
Two more comments on the Fastball:
First, 8 of the 21 fastballs put in play resulted in hits, which means when opponents put the fastball in play, they're batting 381! So clearly, Niese should not go fastball happy in a game, even if he is having problems with his curveball. Also because of this, Niese throws the curveball on 3-1 and 3-2 counts, which are typically fastball counts. This is huge, because throwing this fastball in those counts, when hitters are sitting on dead red.
Second, as the game goes on, Niese's fastball's speed drops significantly. The fastball already isn't overpowering anyone, and this just makes it worse.
Then there's the changeup. I won't spend much time on the changeup here, but I will show you the compiliation:
16 Curveballs thrown: 8 for Balls, 1 called strike, 1 swinging strike, 2 foul balls, and 4 balls put in play, 3 of which were hits.
His changeup is obviously his worse pitch as you can see here, and I think Niese knows it...in his second start he threw a ground total of 5 change-ups in 116 pitches.
----------------------------------
So what does all this mean, what should we look for in Mr. Niese? Well, Niese has the opposite problem as Mike Pelfrey right now: Pelf needs to work on an offspeed pitch to accompany his great sinker and 4 seamer, while Niese has a perfect off speed pitch. Niese on the other hand needs to work on his fastball. His curveball is a strong pitch, and he knows it and is not afraid to throw it on 3-1 and 3-2 counts. His fastball on the other hand, is simply mediocre and relies a lot on pinpoint control. For the future, I'd suspect he'll either do some heavy work on reworking that changeup, or ditch the pitch altogether. I think considering how slow his fastball is, Niese would be better off with a slider than a changeup.
For this season, Niese would seem to work really good out of the bullpen, where he could easily survive on 2 pitches. If he starts again, which looks likely, don't expect the same type of response from the last game. He's probably equivalent to at most a 5 starter right now...it's just simply impossible to get by on just a curve ball when teams facing him will know how his fastball looks. (Of course, if he faces the Nationals or another bad team, this point is moot, but you get the idea). Just don't overhype the kid, he's still very raw, and in an ideal situation, would have a full year in AAA next year before being called up for good.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Bad News?
Quick post here, The box score of tonights binghamton game shows Fmart, playing for the first time in 3 games, having been replaced after 1AB.
Not good.
More as we hear it.
EDIT: Never mind, the game in question was suspended before Fmart's recent injury, and thus the Ab is from earlier. Pay my folly no mind.
More important post to come soon, i promise.
Not good.
More as we hear it.
EDIT: Never mind, the game in question was suspended before Fmart's recent injury, and thus the Ab is from earlier. Pay my folly no mind.
More important post to come soon, i promise.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Mets-Phils...not as big a deal as the media would have you think.
In what is a typical media frenzy, the mets-phils series the next 3 days is getting super-hyped up.
And I can't say I'm immune to the excitement. I have tickets to tonight's game after all.
Still, the series is not as important as the media would have you believe. Here's the situation.
Mets-Phils Tied.
Florida 1 Game Back
Now yes, if either the mets or phils sweep, the situation may prove fatal for the losing team. At the same time, we've seen how fickle a 3 game lead is in this season and the last season, and it's far from insurmountable.
But if there's no sweep, and its just a standard one team wins 2/3, the series' importance is marginal at best. In that case, the winning team gains 1 game other, which is really negligible in importance at this point in the season. And then of course, Florida coul easily catch up with the winner of this series if they beat atlanta the next 2 games.
In other words, the mets should win at least one game of this series. That's pretty important, though getting swept is not the be-all-end-all of the season. Once they do that, they just gotta maintain a high quality of play throughout the season. If they win this series and don't do that, the series wont mean anything anyhow.
What's important is playing a strong last 60 games, not winning a 3 game set with 60 games to go.
Lets not lose our eyes on the Prize.
LGM.
And I can't say I'm immune to the excitement. I have tickets to tonight's game after all.
Still, the series is not as important as the media would have you believe. Here's the situation.
Mets-Phils Tied.
Florida 1 Game Back
Now yes, if either the mets or phils sweep, the situation may prove fatal for the losing team. At the same time, we've seen how fickle a 3 game lead is in this season and the last season, and it's far from insurmountable.
But if there's no sweep, and its just a standard one team wins 2/3, the series' importance is marginal at best. In that case, the winning team gains 1 game other, which is really negligible in importance at this point in the season. And then of course, Florida coul easily catch up with the winner of this series if they beat atlanta the next 2 games.
In other words, the mets should win at least one game of this series. That's pretty important, though getting swept is not the be-all-end-all of the season. Once they do that, they just gotta maintain a high quality of play throughout the season. If they win this series and don't do that, the series wont mean anything anyhow.
What's important is playing a strong last 60 games, not winning a 3 game set with 60 games to go.
Lets not lose our eyes on the Prize.
LGM.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Update-Fmart, Stats, Mets going Forward
Howdy yall, sorry for the slow updates.
So with talk of Fmart making his ML debut becoming slightly louder these days (Rob Harding of Hotfoot for example has made a case i've disagreed with), lets see how our favorite prospect has been since our last update on 6/29.
First, his last 10 Games (Starting on July 3rd*)
39 ABs, .308 BA (12 hits), 8 Runs, 1 Double, 1 Triple, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 5K, 2SB
(OBP of .372)
Next, his new total stats:
221 ABs, .294 BA (65 Hits), 32 Runs, 12 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 13 BB, 48 K, 5 SB,
.338 OBP, .421 SLG
For reference, his old line was: 302/.339/.450.
So what's happened? Well, Fmart's hitting decreased slightly (notice though that it happened in the 5 game gap in between the last 10 games and our last update, so that might not last) and more importantly, He's K-ing less and seemingly walking more. The ratio is closer to 1-1 than before, where he was King at a roughly 5-1 rate, since then its been 7Ks and 5 BBs, which is certainly much better. As a result, while his average has dropped 8 points, his OBA has for all essential purposes remained the same.
His slugging is down as a result of his power consisting of about 1 double and 1 triple since our last post. Is that a worry? Maybe...but probably not. If he truly is a player with a good amount of pop in his bat, that will show up eventually, regardless of whether he hits for average. And he isn't coming too far off an injury. Morever, as his Plate discipline becomes better, these numbers should change for the better. I expect the doubles and homers to return, and that Slugging average to rise accordingly.
So has FMart turned the corner? Given that some folks were enamored with his 1/2 future's game performance and the BP he took, I'm sure that people are hoping he has. It's too early to say though, he's not even had a 100 plate appearences since our last look in, and things like these could be flukes. Once again I'll proclaim, he's not ready for the Majors yet.
But if he continues like he has the last 60 ABs for a little while longer, i see no reason why the mets might not promote him to AAA. Still, i suspect he's in AA for the rest of the season, where he'll come up as a September call up.
*-I'd do his stats since 6/29, albeit the milb stat site doesnt give a game log link, and while i could piece out that info, its a real pain. This should suffice though.
--------------------
Optimist Peeve
Listen, i love new baseball stats and using stats to measure players. I love browing players' VORPs, figuring out how lucky people are, and am a major proponent of players with high OBPs (Im not as high on OPS, since ive always been told OBP is up to 3x more important than slugging..yet ops is still used like they should be measured 1-1. Seems silly to me). I love using defensive stats to show who should really get gold gloves (Sorry Mr Wright and Mr jeter, you dont deserve em. Now hand em over). My daily baseball browsing routine includes firejoemorgan, hardballtimes, etc etc etc. So lets not group me in with those ignoramus' who claim such stats are made by people in their mother's basement.
BUT (and you did know this was coming) a type of met fan has recently got my attention. This is a type of met fan who notices that our OF production, particularly in left field, has been among th worst offensively in the league. Fine. Thats a very obvious observation, and the stats bear this out with their combined OPS'es (or OPS+ which is a comparison to the mean average) being rather bad, if not awful. And this is undeniable.
But this type of met fan, sees these stats, and becomes rediculously negative about them. They insist we should trade any prospects that arent ML ready soon for replacements (maybe not rentals) or else our season is in the tank. They go on and on about unrealistic trade targets (any Pirates OF, Holliday, etc etc etc. Ibanez included).
It annoys me. We're not getting any of these guys. But we can win with we have, if our pitching can come together. Mind you, some of these guys are just downright negative in general, leading one particular one i know to constantly hate on mike pelfrey. Moron. But the point is this. Yes stats are a great tool that i use and will continue to use (see above). Yes they show some weaknesses in our team. But getting all negative or stupid because of this is just really really annoying. No team is perfect. And We CAN win even with these weaknesses.
-------------------------
The Mets' "second half" (Is it really second half if 3/5 of the season is already played? what an awful terminology) has great potential. The SPs still haven't quite stabilized, and even I am not sure whether i dare to hope pelf can continue this forever. Well, he's got the Phillies next week, so that should be a good measure. Ollie's an unknown, and Maine has struggled of late. Still, the rotation is fairly good, as is the Pen. I have more faith in billy than others, i think he'll come back as strong as ever. Remember guys, Billy> 2000 Armando and 2000s Looper. By Far.
We have a decent shot at making the playoffs. And then it's anyone's game.
So with talk of Fmart making his ML debut becoming slightly louder these days (Rob Harding of Hotfoot for example has made a case i've disagreed with), lets see how our favorite prospect has been since our last update on 6/29.
First, his last 10 Games (Starting on July 3rd*)
39 ABs, .308 BA (12 hits), 8 Runs, 1 Double, 1 Triple, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 5K, 2SB
(OBP of .372)
Next, his new total stats:
221 ABs, .294 BA (65 Hits), 32 Runs, 12 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 13 BB, 48 K, 5 SB,
.338 OBP, .421 SLG
For reference, his old line was: 302/.339/.450.
So what's happened? Well, Fmart's hitting decreased slightly (notice though that it happened in the 5 game gap in between the last 10 games and our last update, so that might not last) and more importantly, He's K-ing less and seemingly walking more. The ratio is closer to 1-1 than before, where he was King at a roughly 5-1 rate, since then its been 7Ks and 5 BBs, which is certainly much better. As a result, while his average has dropped 8 points, his OBA has for all essential purposes remained the same.
His slugging is down as a result of his power consisting of about 1 double and 1 triple since our last post. Is that a worry? Maybe...but probably not. If he truly is a player with a good amount of pop in his bat, that will show up eventually, regardless of whether he hits for average. And he isn't coming too far off an injury. Morever, as his Plate discipline becomes better, these numbers should change for the better. I expect the doubles and homers to return, and that Slugging average to rise accordingly.
So has FMart turned the corner? Given that some folks were enamored with his 1/2 future's game performance and the BP he took, I'm sure that people are hoping he has. It's too early to say though, he's not even had a 100 plate appearences since our last look in, and things like these could be flukes. Once again I'll proclaim, he's not ready for the Majors yet.
But if he continues like he has the last 60 ABs for a little while longer, i see no reason why the mets might not promote him to AAA. Still, i suspect he's in AA for the rest of the season, where he'll come up as a September call up.
*-I'd do his stats since 6/29, albeit the milb stat site doesnt give a game log link, and while i could piece out that info, its a real pain. This should suffice though.
--------------------
Optimist Peeve
Listen, i love new baseball stats and using stats to measure players. I love browing players' VORPs, figuring out how lucky people are, and am a major proponent of players with high OBPs (Im not as high on OPS, since ive always been told OBP is up to 3x more important than slugging..yet ops is still used like they should be measured 1-1. Seems silly to me). I love using defensive stats to show who should really get gold gloves (Sorry Mr Wright and Mr jeter, you dont deserve em. Now hand em over). My daily baseball browsing routine includes firejoemorgan, hardballtimes, etc etc etc. So lets not group me in with those ignoramus' who claim such stats are made by people in their mother's basement.
BUT (and you did know this was coming) a type of met fan has recently got my attention. This is a type of met fan who notices that our OF production, particularly in left field, has been among th worst offensively in the league. Fine. Thats a very obvious observation, and the stats bear this out with their combined OPS'es (or OPS+ which is a comparison to the mean average) being rather bad, if not awful. And this is undeniable.
But this type of met fan, sees these stats, and becomes rediculously negative about them. They insist we should trade any prospects that arent ML ready soon for replacements (maybe not rentals) or else our season is in the tank. They go on and on about unrealistic trade targets (any Pirates OF, Holliday, etc etc etc. Ibanez included).
It annoys me. We're not getting any of these guys. But we can win with we have, if our pitching can come together. Mind you, some of these guys are just downright negative in general, leading one particular one i know to constantly hate on mike pelfrey. Moron. But the point is this. Yes stats are a great tool that i use and will continue to use (see above). Yes they show some weaknesses in our team. But getting all negative or stupid because of this is just really really annoying. No team is perfect. And We CAN win even with these weaknesses.
-------------------------
The Mets' "second half" (Is it really second half if 3/5 of the season is already played? what an awful terminology) has great potential. The SPs still haven't quite stabilized, and even I am not sure whether i dare to hope pelf can continue this forever. Well, he's got the Phillies next week, so that should be a good measure. Ollie's an unknown, and Maine has struggled of late. Still, the rotation is fairly good, as is the Pen. I have more faith in billy than others, i think he'll come back as strong as ever. Remember guys, Billy> 2000 Armando and 2000s Looper. By Far.
We have a decent shot at making the playoffs. And then it's anyone's game.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
New Goal
A blog i read for the isles is called Okposonet. this blog was made after the isles signed with pick 7 in the NHL draft a player named Kyle Okposo, who had the seeming potential to be a star.
So, everyone talks about fernando martinez like he's a coming superstar. So since this blog seems redundant as is, we'll be changing the focus to the future.
So: FernandoMartinez Watch!
--------------------------------------------------
Current Stats
Date 3/29/08.
Binghamton Mets (AA)
40 Games Played, 169 At Bats
302/.339/.450,
23 Runs,
11 Doubles, 4 HR,
19 RBIs,
8 BB, 41K
Martinez has been injured a lot in his career, but his BA till his first 3 games back with the club was around .280. Now it's risen to 300, mainly due to his getting like 7 hits in 3 games.
A good sign. But naturally we have some things he needs to fix.
One: Doesn't Walk enough. In 177 Plate Appearances, he has 8 walks. Uh, that's not good, and it contributes to his mediocre OBP (339). Naturally this is a skill that players learn with age and experience, so it'll be a key thing we keep an eye on.
Two: Ks too often. This follows with point 1, as it probably is indicative of him swinging too much at balls out of the zone. This should also immprove with experience, and certainly can't get worse as he's currently striking out once every four plate appearances.
Finally to explain what we're looking for, lets look at a Met we all know and like.
David Wright.
This is year 2/3 of FMart, so we'll check out wright as well. This was wright's 3rd year, and he was 20, a year older than Fmart.
FSL Mets (A+ league, so one notch below Binghamton).
270/369/459, 72 walks, 98 Ks, 39 Doubles, 15 HRs in 466 at bats. To compare this well, let's extrapolate the data.
So roughly at this point, Wright had:
270/369/459, 37 Ks 27 BB 15 doubles, 6 HR in 177 ABs
He struck out less, and notice he walked roughly 3 times as much as Fmart. This suggests the striking out was more due to him taking pitches than swinging. Also, Wright hit more doubles, which is a good indicator of power, something Fmart appears close to doing.
It would be good to note that FMart is a year younger than Wright at this point. Also, its hard to compare the two, since two players are rarely so comparable. But the point is made, that Fmart has a ways to come till he can come close to wright's "superstarish" numbers and be a savior to this franchise.
Oh and those numbers of wright? that was his 2nd to last year in the minors, and the year after he came up for good. So we're clearly getting ahead of ourselves here. Fmart is not anywhere close to wright in readiness yet (All people asking for FMart to come up to the majors need to be shot right now, thats a BAD idea as you can see by the comparison). But we'll keep track on this often.
So, everyone talks about fernando martinez like he's a coming superstar. So since this blog seems redundant as is, we'll be changing the focus to the future.
So: FernandoMartinez Watch!
--------------------------------------------------
Current Stats
Date 3/29/08.
Binghamton Mets (AA)
40 Games Played, 169 At Bats
302/.339/.450,
23 Runs,
11 Doubles, 4 HR,
19 RBIs,
8 BB, 41K
Martinez has been injured a lot in his career, but his BA till his first 3 games back with the club was around .280. Now it's risen to 300, mainly due to his getting like 7 hits in 3 games.
A good sign. But naturally we have some things he needs to fix.
One: Doesn't Walk enough. In 177 Plate Appearances, he has 8 walks. Uh, that's not good, and it contributes to his mediocre OBP (339). Naturally this is a skill that players learn with age and experience, so it'll be a key thing we keep an eye on.
Two: Ks too often. This follows with point 1, as it probably is indicative of him swinging too much at balls out of the zone. This should also immprove with experience, and certainly can't get worse as he's currently striking out once every four plate appearances.
Finally to explain what we're looking for, lets look at a Met we all know and like.
David Wright.
This is year 2/3 of FMart, so we'll check out wright as well. This was wright's 3rd year, and he was 20, a year older than Fmart.
FSL Mets (A+ league, so one notch below Binghamton).
270/369/459, 72 walks, 98 Ks, 39 Doubles, 15 HRs in 466 at bats. To compare this well, let's extrapolate the data.
So roughly at this point, Wright had:
270/369/459, 37 Ks 27 BB 15 doubles, 6 HR in 177 ABs
He struck out less, and notice he walked roughly 3 times as much as Fmart. This suggests the striking out was more due to him taking pitches than swinging. Also, Wright hit more doubles, which is a good indicator of power, something Fmart appears close to doing.
It would be good to note that FMart is a year younger than Wright at this point. Also, its hard to compare the two, since two players are rarely so comparable. But the point is made, that Fmart has a ways to come till he can come close to wright's "superstarish" numbers and be a savior to this franchise.
Oh and those numbers of wright? that was his 2nd to last year in the minors, and the year after he came up for good. So we're clearly getting ahead of ourselves here. Fmart is not anywhere close to wright in readiness yet (All people asking for FMart to come up to the majors need to be shot right now, thats a BAD idea as you can see by the comparison). But we'll keep track on this often.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Optimism taking a holder- Schmoozer's Monologue, Pitch Counts, and Baseball
So it's rather hard to be optimistic these days about the mets. So, besides pelfrey yesterday there isn't much to say on that matter.
So coming back from the gym i caught the bulk of steve somers' (aka "Schmoozer") monologue on the radio. And his rant was against pitch counts.
Both Pelfrey and Santana were dominating, he said, in the typical schmooze impassioned voice. Yet both were taken out due to pitch counts! Same with Maine the previous day he'd said.
Well, I thought about this, and it's an interesting question. I know there's been studies saying that certain pitchers' durability especially early on, involves limiting innings pitched and perhaps pitches themselves per start. That said...
Santana went 7 today. Why not give him 8 and 9? Santana is an ace who is a veteran. he also knows what to do when he starts losing his stuff late in starts. Shouldn't he have been fine?
Pelf gives up a hit in the 9th, fine. But he'd been dominant to that point. Why waste billy on that?
Maine looked mediocre through 5 with a large pitch count (100 pitches or so). But with a 5-1 lead, why couldn't we have let him, an experienced if not veteran starter try to go 6 to save the pen the extra inning and not tax the long reliever?
These are the questions that are asked. My responses are: 1. Yes. 2. No. 3. Not Sure.
Lets go by individual situations here. In santana's case, he was purely dominant, and has a record of dominance. moreover, as an ace pitcher, we've seen what he's able to do when he realizes early he doesn't have it on a particular day. That last bit is particularly important, for the only argument i can think of against it is that he might lose his stuff in the last 2 innings. And we've seen what he can do when he's losing it. In other words, a 2-0 lead should be perfectly safe for 2 innings, even with nonoptimum santana. And if his next start was hard on him, i'd believe he could get through it.
Roy Halladay pitches complete innings all the time, and while his pc isnt that high as santanas was, the point is that an Ace should be able to go 9 on a decent amount of occasions.
With Pelf, I liked willie's decision. Yes, Pelf just needed 3 more outs. But as a nonexperienced person in unknown territory, I'd rather he get the chance to go 1-2-3 with billy ready if he gives up a hit. which is what happened.
with Maine, I'm not sure. Schmooze is wrong on one point, Maine looked mediocre at best on Tuesday (I was there). Still, with a 4 run lead, im not sure it was worth wasting a reliever for one more inning.
I need to think this one over more now.
So coming back from the gym i caught the bulk of steve somers' (aka "Schmoozer") monologue on the radio. And his rant was against pitch counts.
Both Pelfrey and Santana were dominating, he said, in the typical schmooze impassioned voice. Yet both were taken out due to pitch counts! Same with Maine the previous day he'd said.
Well, I thought about this, and it's an interesting question. I know there's been studies saying that certain pitchers' durability especially early on, involves limiting innings pitched and perhaps pitches themselves per start. That said...
Santana went 7 today. Why not give him 8 and 9? Santana is an ace who is a veteran. he also knows what to do when he starts losing his stuff late in starts. Shouldn't he have been fine?
Pelf gives up a hit in the 9th, fine. But he'd been dominant to that point. Why waste billy on that?
Maine looked mediocre through 5 with a large pitch count (100 pitches or so). But with a 5-1 lead, why couldn't we have let him, an experienced if not veteran starter try to go 6 to save the pen the extra inning and not tax the long reliever?
These are the questions that are asked. My responses are: 1. Yes. 2. No. 3. Not Sure.
Lets go by individual situations here. In santana's case, he was purely dominant, and has a record of dominance. moreover, as an ace pitcher, we've seen what he's able to do when he realizes early he doesn't have it on a particular day. That last bit is particularly important, for the only argument i can think of against it is that he might lose his stuff in the last 2 innings. And we've seen what he can do when he's losing it. In other words, a 2-0 lead should be perfectly safe for 2 innings, even with nonoptimum santana. And if his next start was hard on him, i'd believe he could get through it.
Roy Halladay pitches complete innings all the time, and while his pc isnt that high as santanas was, the point is that an Ace should be able to go 9 on a decent amount of occasions.
With Pelf, I liked willie's decision. Yes, Pelf just needed 3 more outs. But as a nonexperienced person in unknown territory, I'd rather he get the chance to go 1-2-3 with billy ready if he gives up a hit. which is what happened.
with Maine, I'm not sure. Schmooze is wrong on one point, Maine looked mediocre at best on Tuesday (I was there). Still, with a 4 run lead, im not sure it was worth wasting a reliever for one more inning.
I need to think this one over more now.
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